There’s a new divide in housing right now. In some states, buyers are gaining ground. In others, sellers still have the upper hand. It all depends on where you live. Curious what's happening in your state?
These 3 maps show how the split is playing out across the country. In each one:
- Darker Shades of Blue = Buyer friendly
- Lighter Shades of Blue = Seller strong
Inventory Sets the Stage
While the number of homes for sale has improved pretty much across the board, how much growth we’ve seen can look dramatically different based on where you live. And that impacts who has the leverage today.
This map uses data from Realtor.com to break it down:
- The darker shades of blue show where inventory has risen more than in other areas of the country. Buyers here have more to choose from and should have an easier time finding a home and leveraging their negotiating power.
- The lighter shades of blue are where inventory is still low. Sellers are more likely to sell quickly and make fewer concessions.
Prices Follow Inventory
The second map tracks how home prices are shifting by state. Just like above, you can see the divide taking shape. Many of the same areas are darker blue. That’s because there’s such a close tie between inventory and prices. When inventory rises, prices moderate.
- The darker shades of blue are where prices are actually coming down slightly or flattening. Because, with more homes for sale, sellers may have to cut their price or throw in concessions to get a deal done. And that benefits budget-conscious buyers.
- The lighter shades of blue show areas where prices are still climbing because inventory is low. Sellers may still see buyers competing for homes, and that pushes prices higher.
Time on Market Tells the Same Story
Finally, here’s how quickly homes are selling state by state. See the colors? For the most part, they follow the same general pattern with a lot of the darker blues being in the lower half of the country. And here’s why.
Generally speaking, as inventory grows, homes don’t sell as quickly. That’s why some of the same areas that have more inventory, see homes take more time to sell.
- The darker blues show where homes are staying on the market longer. That gives buyers more time and options, and signals sellers may need to adjust their expectations.
- The lighter blues are where homes are still moving quickly. Sellers there may feel more confident, and buyers may need to act fast.
This explains why some sellers in these darker blue states are feeling frustrated when their listings linger, while others in tighter markets (like the lighter blue states) are still seeing their homes sell quickly.
Why an Agent’s Local Expertise Is the Key To Unlocking Today’s Market
Basically, the housing market is experiencing a divide. And conditions are going to vary a lot based on where you live, where you’re moving, and if you’re buying or selling. While the state-level information helps, what really matters is what’s happening in your town and your neighborhood. And only a local agent truly has the information you need.
Bottom Line
Want to know what conditions look like in your neighborhood?
If you want to understand which side of the market you’re on, connect with a local agent. They’ll walk you through the numbers and what they mean for your next move.
And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:
That may not sound like a big deal, but it does matter. Even small changes in rates can make a difference in your future monthly payment. Compared to when rates were 7%, if you take out an average $400K mortgage now at 6.3%, it’ll cost about $190 less a month based on just rates alone.
This means your house is likely worth much more now than when you first bought it, thanks to how much prices have climbed over time. And if you’re worried because you’ve heard prices are flattening or even coming down in some markets, just know if you’ve been in your house for a few years (or more) you very likely have enough equity to sell and still come out ahead.
That’s longer than it used to be. And over that decade? You’ve built equity just by making your mortgage payments and riding the wave of rising home values. Because the financial side of homeownership is about playing the long game, not worrying about little ups and downs in the market here and there. And over time, that means you’re winning.
And that’s a change you’re going to feel – in a good way. Since about this time last year, we’ve been in a plateau of “limited” buyer demand. But now that rates are coming down, buyer demand is getting better.
So, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.
As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:
Here’s what this says about today’s market. Buyers are a lot more price sensitive now. And sellers can’t keep trying to inch the bar higher, or their house will sit without any offers.
Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings.
Why This Matters If You’re Selling Your House
That means 2 out of every 3 builders are offering something extra to get deals done. And when builders throw in incentives, it’s the buyers like you who win.
On average they’re taking off about 5% off the purchase price of the house. For a buyer, 5% could be the difference between reluctantly settling and finally getting a home that works for you.
And here’s why that may be happening. Borrowers with FHA mortgages may be more sensitive to shifts in the economy. And with recession fears, stubborn inflation, employment challenges, and more, it makes sense this segment of the market may be feeling it a bit more. But that doesn’t mean it’s a signal a crash is coming.
As the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explains: