If you’re following mortgage rates because you know they impact your borrowing costs, you may be wondering what the future holds for them. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to answer that question because mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast.  

But, there’s one thing that’s historically a good indicator of what’ll happen with rates, and that’s the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Here’s a graph showing those two metrics since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:

As the graph shows, historically, the average spread between the two over the last 50 years was 1.72 percentage points (also commonly referred to as 172 basis points). If you look at the trend line you can see when the Treasury Yield trends up, mortgage rates will usually respond. And, when the Yield drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. While they typically move in sync like this, the gap between the two has remained about 1.72 percentage points for quite some time. But, what’s crucial to notice is that spread is widening far beyond the norm lately (see graph below):

If you’re asking yourself: what’s pushing the spread beyond its typical average? It’s primarily because of uncertainty in the financial markets. Factors such as inflation, other economic drivers, and the policy and decisions from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) are all influencing mortgage rates and a widening spread.

Why Does This Matter for You?

This may feel overly technical and granular, but here’s why homebuyers like you should understand the spread. It means, based on the normal historical gap between the two, there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.

And, experts think that’s what lies ahead as long as inflation continues to cool. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal . . . However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”

Similarly, an article from Forbes says:

“Though housing market watchers expect mortgage rates to remain elevated amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking war on inflation, they believe rates peaked last fall and will decline—to some degree—later this year, barring any unforeseen surprises.”

Bottom Line

If you’re either a first-time home buyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep on top of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts think will happen in the coming months.

Before you decide to sell your house, it’s important to know what you can expect in the current housing market. One positive trend right now is homebuyers are adapting to today’s mortgage rates and getting used to them as the new normal.

To better understand what’s been happening with mortgage rates lately, the graph below shows the trend for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac since last October. As you can see, rates have been between 6% and 7% pretty consistently for the past nine months:

According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), mortgage rates play a significant role in buyer demand and, by extension, home sales. Yun highlights the positive impact of stable rates:

“Mortgage rates heavily influence the direction of home sales. Relatively steady rates have led to several consecutive months of consistent home sales.”

As a seller, hearing that home sales are consistent right now is good news. It means buyers are out there and actively purchasing homes. Here’s a bit more context on how mortgage rates have impacted demand recently.

When mortgage rates surged dramatically last year, escalating from roughly 3% to 7%, many potential buyers felt a bit of sticker shock and decided to hold off on their plans to purchase a home. However, as time has passed, that initial shock has worn off. Buyers have grown more accustomed to current mortgage rates and have accepted that the record-low rates of the last few years are behind us. As Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, says:

“. . . consumers are adapting to the idea that higher mortgage rates will likely stick around for the foreseeable future.”

In fact, a recent survey by Freddie Mac reveals 18% of respondents say they’re likely to buy a home in the next six months. That means nearly one out of every five people surveyed plan to buy in the near future. And that goes to show buyers are planning to be active in the months ahead.

Of course, mortgage rates aren’t the sole factor affecting buyer demand. No matter where mortgage rates stand, people will always have reasons to move, whether it’s for job relocation, changing households, or any other personal motivation. As a seller, you can feel confident there is a market for your house today. And that demand is pretty strong as buyers settle into where rates are right now. 

Bottom Line

The way buyers perceive today’s mortgage rates is shifting – they’re getting used to the new normal. Steady rates are contributing to strong buyer demand and consistent home sales. Connect with a local real estate agent to get your house on the market and in front of those buyers.

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.

To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.

The graphs below use recent monthly reports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.

Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.

The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends:

“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.” 

Experts believe one of the reasons prices didn’t crash like some expected is because there aren’t enough available homes for the number of people who want to buy them. Even with today’s mortgage rates, there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available for sale.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how more demand than supply keeps upward pressure on prices:

“History has shown that higher rates may take the steam out of rising prices, but it doesn’t cause them to collapse entirely. This is especially true in today’s housing market, where the demand for homes continues to outpace supply, keeping the pressure on house prices."

Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, states home price growth is exceeding expectations thanks to that high demand:

“. . . housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected . . . Housing’s performance is a testimony to the strength of demographic-related demand . . .”

Here’s How This Affects You

• Buyers: If you've been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices have bounced back should bring you some relief. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.
• Sellers: If you've been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, it might be a good idea to team up with a real estate agent to list your house. You don't have to wait any longer because the latest data suggests things are turning in your favor.

Bottom Line

If you delayed your moving plans because you were concerned about home prices dropping, the latest data reveals the worst is already over, and prices are appreciating nationally. Partner with a local real estate agent so you know what's happening with home prices in your area.

Some Highlights

• Today’s housing inventory is still well below more normal years.
• This low inventory is why homes that are priced right are still selling quickly and seeing multiple offers.
• If you want to sell your house, now is a great time because inventory is still low. Contact a trusted real estate agent to start the process.

Even as some companies transition back into the office, remote work remains a popular choice for many professionals. So, if you currently enjoy working from home or hope to be able to soon, you’re not alone. According to a recent survey, most working professionals want to work either fully remote or hybrid (see below):

This trend is good news if you’re looking to buy a home because a remote or hybrid work setup can help you overcome some of today’s affordability and housing inventory challenges.

More Work Flexibility Equals More Home Options

Remote or hybrid work opens up a world of opportunities. That’s because it allows you to broaden your search for your next home since you’re no longer limited to living close to your workplace. With the freedom to work from anywhere, you can explore more affordable areas that may be located farther away from bustling city centers or your office. This flexibility can be a game changer while higher mortgage rates are making it difficult for some homebuyers to afford a home.

An article from the New York Times (NYT) highlights how remote work can greatly assist you in overcoming that challenge:

“. . . take advantage of the opportunity remote work has presented to move to more affordable communities (either farther out in the suburbs, or in another part of the country).”

And, since the supply of homes for sale is still so low, another key challenge for you today may be finding something with all of the features you want and need. Because remote work allows you to broaden your search radius to include additional areas, you may actually have less trouble finding a home with the features you want the most because you’ll have a bigger pool of options to pick from.

Working remotely gives you the flexibility to find an affordable home with the features you want. In other words, you have a better chance of getting what you need without blowing your budget. 

Bottom Line

Working remotely not only gives you more flexibility in your job but also presents a great chance to broaden your search for a home. Since you're not limited to a specific location, you have the opportunity to explore more options. Connect with a local real estate agent to discuss how this can expand your choices and help you find the perfect home.

If you’re a homeowner ready to make a move, you may be thinking about using your current house as a short-term rental property instead of selling it. A short-term rental (STR) is typically offered as an alternative to a hotel, and they’re an investment that’s gained popularity in recent years.

While a short-term rental can be a tempting idea, you may find the reality of being responsible for one difficult to take on. Here are some of the challenges you could face if you rent out your house instead of selling it.

A Short-Term Rental Comes with Responsibilities

Successfully managing your house as a short-term rental takes a lot of time and effort. You’ll have to juggle tasks like dealing with reservations, organizing check-ins, and tackling cleaning, landscape, and maintenance duties. Any one of those can feel demanding, but all together it’s a lot to handle.

Short-term rentals experience high turnover rates, as new guests check in and out frequently. This home traffic can lead to increased wear and tear on your property—meaning you may need to make more frequent repairs or replace your furniture, fixtures, and appliances more often. 

Think through your ability to make that level of commitment, especially if you plan to use a platform that advertises your rental listing. Most of them have specific requirements hosts must meet. An article from Bankrate explains:

"Managing a rental property can be time-consuming and challenging. Are you handy and able to make some repairs yourself? If not, do you have a network of affordable contractors you can reach out to in a pinch? Consider whether you want to take on the added responsibility of being a landlord, which means screening tenants and fielding issues, among other responsibilities, or paying for a third party to take care of things instead."

There’s a lot to consider before taking the leap and converting your house into a short-term rental. If you aren’t ready for the work it takes, it could be wise to sell instead.

Short-Term Rental Regulations

As the short-term rental industry continues to grow, regulations have increased. Legal restrictions commonly include limits on the number of vacation rentals in a particular location. This is especially true in larger cities and tourist destinations where there may be concerns about overcrowding or housing shortages for permanent residents. Restrictions may also apply to the type of property that can be used for short-term rentals.

Many cities also require homeowners to obtain a license or permit before renting out their properties. Nick Del Pego, CEO at Deckard Technologies, explains:

“Renting short-term rentals is considered a business by most local governments, and owners must comply with specific workplace regulations and business licensing rules established in their local communities.”

It is important to thoroughly check whether short-term rentals are regulated or prohibited by the local government and your homeowners association (HOA) before even considering renting out your home. 

Bottom Line

Converting your home into a short-term rental isn’t a decision you should make without doing your research. To decide if selling your house is a better alternative, talk with a local real estate agent today.

If you’re in the process of looking for a home today, you know the supply of homes for sale is low because you’re feeling the impact of having a limited pool of options. And, if your biggest hurdle right now is that you’re having trouble finding something you like, don’t forget that a newly built home is a great option.

As a recent article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says: 

“Home buyers continue to be met with limited housing options during what’s typically the real estate market’s busiest season. . . . The current supply of existing homes is about half the level it was in 2019 . . . Meanwhile, the market for new construction is a bright spot.”

Here’s a look at a key metric that shows just how much new home construction is ramping up nationwide. It’s called new residential completions. Basically, completions are newly built homes that are finished and ready to move into.

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the trend of new-home completions over time, including the long-term average for the number of finished housing units (shown in black on the graph):

As you can see on the left (shown in orange), leading up to the housing crash, builders exceeded that average. The result was an oversupply of homes on the market, so home values declined. That was one of the factors that led to the housing crash back in 2008.

Since then, the level of new home construction has fallen off, and builders haven’t built enough homes to meet the historical average (shown in red). That underbuilding left the housing market with a multi-year inventory deficit. And, that deficit is part of what makes inventory so low right now.

But, here’s the good news. The green on the right shows that according to the latest report from the Census, builders are matching the long-term average right now. And that means they’re bringing more newly built homes to the market than they have in recent memory.

And residential starts and permits are also gaining momentum. Starts are homes where the construction has officially kicked off. Permits are homes where builders are planning to break ground soon. Since both are up, it’s a sign there are even more newly built homes coming soon.

What This Means for You

More newly built homes in various stages of the construction process means your pool of options just got bigger. If you’re looking to move right now and timing is important to you, reach out to a local real estate professional to explore the homes that were recently completed in your area. If construction is done on those homes, you should be able to move in quickly.

But, if you can wait a bit and the idea of customizing a home from the ground up appeals to you, ask that same agent about the homes in your area that are in the process of being built. If you buy a home that’s still in the works, you can help pick the features and finishings along the way. And when none of the homes you’ve looked at so far are to your liking, being able to tailor one to your taste may be your best option.

Either way, a trusted real estate agent is a crucial part of the process. They’ll know exactly what’s available in your area and can base their recommendations on your unique needs, desired neighborhoods, and more.

Bottom Line

So, if you're having trouble finding a home you like while inventory is so low, it may be time to consider looking into new-home construction. If you'd like to start that conversation, reach out to a trusted local real estate professional who’s an expert on what’s available in your area.

When it comes to selling your house, you want three things: to sell it for the most money you can, to do it in a certain amount of time, and to do all of that with the fewest hassles. And, while the current housing market is generally favorable to sellers due to today’s limited housing supply, there are still factors that can cause delays or even prevent a house from selling.

If you're having trouble getting your house to sell in today's sellers’ market, here are a few things to think about.

Limited Access – If You Can’t Show It, You Can’t Sell It.

One of the biggest mistakes you can make as a seller is limiting the days and times when buyers can view your home. In any market, if you want to maximize the sale of your house, you can’t limit potential buyers’ ability to view it. Remember, minimal access equals minimal exposure.

In some cases, some of the most motivated buyers may come from outside of your local area. Because they’re traveling, they might not have the luxury to adjust their schedules when faced with limited options to tour your house, so make it available as much as possible.

Priced Too High – Price It To Sell, Not To Sit.

Pricing is a critical factor that can significantly impact your home sale. While it's tempting to push the price higher to try to maximize your profit, overpricing can deter potential buyers and lead to your home sitting on the market longer.

Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, notes:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.” 

Not to mention, buyers today have access to a number of tools and resources to view available homes in your area. If your house is priced unreasonably high compared to similar homes, it may drive potential buyers away. Listen to the feedback your agent is getting at open houses and showings. If the feedback is consistent, it may be time to re-evaluate and potentially lower the price. 

Not Freshened Up Before Listing – If It Looks Good, It’ll Make a Good Impression.

When selling your house, the old saying “you never get a second chance to make a first impression” matters. Putting in the work on the exterior of your home is just as important as what you stage inside. Freshen up your landscaping to improve your home’s curb appeal so you can make an impact upfront. As an article from Investopedia says:

“Curb-appeal projects make the property look good as soon as prospective buyers arrive. While these projects may not add a considerable amount of monetary value, they will help your home sell faster—and you can do a lot of the work yourself to save money and time.”

But don’t let that stop at the front door. By removing personal items and reducing clutter inside, you give buyers more freedom to picture themselves in the home. Additionally, a new coat of paint or cleaning the floors can go a long way to freshening up a room.

For all of these things, lean on your real estate agent for expert advice based on your unique situation and feedback you get from buyers throughout the process.

Bottom Line

If your house isn’t getting the attention you feel it deserves and isn’t selling in the timeframe you wanted, it’s time to ask your trusted real estate agent for advice on what you may need to revisit or change in your approach. To get those expert insights, connect with a real estate professional.

Some Highlights

• Downsizing is a popular choice for homeowners when they retire or when their needs change, but with inflation still high, it’s also a way to reduce costs.
• Downsizing could help cut down on your expenses and your equity can fuel your move.
• If you’re thinking about moving to a smaller home, connect with a real estate professional to go over your housing goals and look at your options in the local market.

One of the biggest challenges in the housing market right now is how few homes there are for sale compared to the number of people who want to buy them. To help emphasize just how limited housing inventory still is, let’s take a look at the latest information on active listings, or homes for sale in a given month, as it compares to more normal levels.

According to a recent report from Realtor.com: 

 “On average, active inventory in June was 50.6% below pre-pandemic 2017–2019 levels.”

The graph below helps illustrate this point. It uses historical data to provide a more concrete look at how much the numbers are still lagging behind the level of inventory typical of a more normal market (see graph below):

It’s worth noting that 2020-2022 are not included in this graph. That’s because they were truly abnormal years for the housing market. To make the comparison fair, those have been omitted so they don’t distort the data.

When you compare the orange bars for 2023 with the last normal years for the housing market (2017-2019), you can see the count of active listings is still far below the norm.

What Does This Mean for You? 

If you’re thinking about selling your house, that low inventory is why this is a great time to do so. Buyers have fewer choices now than they did in more normal years, and that’s continuing to impact some key statistics in the housing market. For example, sellers will be happy to see the following data from the latest Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

• The percent of homes that sold in less than a month ticked up slightly to 74%. 
• The median days on market went down to 18 days, showing homes are still selling fast when priced right. 
• The average number of offers on recently sold homes went up to 3.3 offers.

Bottom Line

When supply is so low, your house is going to be in the spotlight. That’s why sellers are seeing their homes sell a little faster and get more offers right now. If you’ve thought about selling, now’s the time to make a move. Connect with a trusted real estate professional to get the process started.