For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them.
But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall.
The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago (see graph below):
And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:
- Mortgage rates
- Home prices
- Your wages
Right now, all three are finally moving in a better direction for you. While that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly easy to buy at today’s rates and prices, it does mean it’s not as challenging.
1. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have come down compared to earlier this year. In May, they were roughly 7%. And now, they’re closer to 6.3% (see graph below):
That may not sound like a big deal, but it does matter. Even small changes in rates can make a difference in your future monthly payment. Compared to when rates were 7%, if you take out an average $400K mortgage now at 6.3%, it’ll cost about $190 less a month based on just rates alone.
And for some people, that’s been enough to make buying a home possible again. As Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explained on September 10th:
“The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022 . . . Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.”
2. Home Prices
After several years of prices rising very rapidly, price growth has finally slowed. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, puts it:
“National home price growth remains positive, but muted — low single digits — and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.”
For buyers, that’s actually a big relief. That moderation makes it easier to plan your budget. And in some markets, prices have even dipped slightly. If you're in one of the markets, you may be able to find something that’s more affordable than you'd expect.
3. Wages
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wages are up near 4% annually. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why that number is so important right now:
“Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
In other words, the typical paycheck is rising faster than home prices right now, which helps make buying a little more affordable. Now, it’s not a big difference, but in a market like this, every bit counts.
What This Means for You
Lower rates, slower price growth, and stronger wages might be enough to make the numbers finally work for you this fall.
While affordability is still tight, it’s a little easier on your wallet to buy now than it was just few months ago. Remember, data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment is already around $290 lower than it was earlier this year.
Bottom Line
Have you been wondering if it’s worth taking another look at buying?
Work with a professional to re-run the numbers. Together you can go over your budget, see what’s changed, and figure out if this fall is the time to turn window-shopping into key-turning.
This means your house is likely worth much more now than when you first bought it, thanks to how much prices have climbed over time. And if you’re worried because you’ve heard prices are flattening or even coming down in some markets, just know if you’ve been in your house for a few years (or more) you very likely have enough equity to sell and still come out ahead.
That’s longer than it used to be. And over that decade? You’ve built equity just by making your mortgage payments and riding the wave of rising home values. Because the financial side of homeownership is about playing the long game, not worrying about little ups and downs in the market here and there. And over time, that means you’re winning.
And that’s a change you’re going to feel – in a good way. Since about this time last year, we’ve been in a plateau of “limited” buyer demand. But now that rates are coming down, buyer demand is getting better.
So, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.
As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:
Here’s what this says about today’s market. Buyers are a lot more price sensitive now. And sellers can’t keep trying to inch the bar higher, or their house will sit without any offers.
Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings.
Why This Matters If You’re Selling Your House
That means 2 out of every 3 builders are offering something extra to get deals done. And when builders throw in incentives, it’s the buyers like you who win.
On average they’re taking off about 5% off the purchase price of the house. For a buyer, 5% could be the difference between reluctantly settling and finally getting a home that works for you.
And here’s why that may be happening. Borrowers with FHA mortgages may be more sensitive to shifts in the economy. And with recession fears, stubborn inflation, employment challenges, and more, it makes sense this segment of the market may be feeling it a bit more. But that doesn’t mean it’s a signal a crash is coming.
As the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explains: