You've probably seen the headlines saying, "foreclosures are on the rise,” and maybe your mind jumped straight to 2008. That’s understandable. A lot of people remember that crash and all the foreclosures that happened during that window, and they’re hoping something like that never happens again.
But this isn’t a repeat of what happened back then. Here’s the context to prove it.
Foreclosures Are Rising, But They’re Still Historically Low
Yes, foreclosure filings are up 26% from a year ago, according to ATTOM. And they’ve been rising for 5 straight quarters. That's a real trend worth paying attention to. But the full picture isn’t scary like the headlines suggest.
The reality is the increase we’re seeing is a sign of the market normalizing.
Here's an important thing to know about this chart. The extremely low numbers you see in 2020 and 2021 don't represent what's "normal." That's when the government put a moratorium on foreclosures to help homeowners get through the pandemic. Those years were an exception, not the baseline.
Instead, compare where we are today to 2017, 2018, and 2019 – the last years the market was running normally. Today's numbers are still lower. So, we're not even back to what's typical, yet. That means this can’t be a crash. (see graph below):
While today's numbers are getting closer to pre-pandemic levels, they're still below historical norms. And just look at what was happening around 2008. Even with the recent increase, we're nowhere near those levels. This is a market returning to normal, not heading toward a crisis.
Why Today’s Equity Picture Changes Everything
Most of those filings won't even end in a completed foreclosure. That's because today's homeowners have something most people in 2008 simply didn't have. And that’s equity.
The average homeowner today is sitting on roughly $295,000 in home equity right now, according to Cotality. Back in 2008, many people owed more than their homes were worth. Selling wasn't an option. And foreclosure was often the only door available.
Today, that's not the case. If you have enough equity to cover what you owe and the cost of selling, you could sell your home, pay off your debt, protect your credit, and potentially walk away with money in your pocket.
That's a completely different situation than what homeowners faced during the last crash, and it's a big reason we're unlikely to see foreclosures spiral the way they did back then.
Check out the graph below. It shows foreclosure data from ATTOM going back to 2005. Here's how to read it:
- The yellow line tracks all foreclosure filings.
- The orange line tracks foreclosure starts, meaning the process has officially begun.
- And the red line at the bottom tracks completed foreclosures (the ones where a homeowner actually lost their home).
See how the red line stays well below the other two? That gap tells the real story. A lot of homeowners who enter the foreclosure process never end up losing their home because they find another way forward first.
Today’s equity is a big reason for that. So, even the filings we are seeing now won’t all end in foreclosure.
If You’re Struggling, You Have More Options Than You Think
Maybe you're behind on payments. Maybe you're stressed about what comes next. That's an incredibly hard place to be, but it's important to know that missing a payment or two doesn't automatically mean you'll lose your home.
Banks would much rather work with you than foreclose. It's a complicated, costly process for them, too. They're often willing to set up a repayment plan, offer forbearance (a temporary pause or reduction in your payments), or modify your loan to make things more manageable long-term.
Just know the sooner you reach out to your lender, the more options you'll have. In some states (ones that don't require the foreclosure process to go through a court) things can move faster than people expect. Getting ahead of it early gives you and your lender the most room to find a solution.
And if selling makes more sense for your situation, a real estate agent can help you understand what your home is worth and whether that's a path worth exploring.
Bottom Line
Foreclosure filings may be rising, but they're still low. And the equity most homeowners are sitting on today is a key reason this looks nothing like 2008.
By that estimate, that’s an extra potential profit of about $14k – a meaningful boost when you’re trying to maximize what you walk away with at closing.
Why It Works
It just feels slow when you’re eager to move – or when you think back a few years to when homes seemed to sell almost instantly.
The key things you need to remember when looking at this visual:
At the end of the day, when your prep time’s short, doing the right things matters more than doing more things.
But even if staying feels like the right answer, it’s still worth thinking ahead about what that might actually look like. That’s where the right agent can really help.
And don’t worry. If your heart is really set on staying, but the costs feel like a concern, it helps to know you have options. Depending on your situation, there may be financial assistance programs available, along with tools like home warranties to help manage unexpected costs.
If you’re wondering the same thing, you can always turn to the internet for answers. But a lot of the time, it’s better to ask a local expert. Because here’s what a pro would tell you.
That means if you’re aiming to save 20% because you think you have to, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary.
And that’s another big miss holding would-be buyers like you back.
Of course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains:
While it can vary a lot based on where you live, only 9 states have more inventory than pre-pandemic today. That’s a key reason why there still aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger something like the crash back in 2008.
That’s not a crash. That’s just prices moderating after a few record-breaking years.
That’s a significant rise. And while we usually see an uptick as we head into the busiest time of the year, this increase was bigger than normal. Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains: